Prediction results
Every prediction we publish is written to an append-only log before first serve, then graded against the final from NCAA.com. Nothing is edited, deleted or backfilled. The record started at zero with the first logged prediction on Oct. 4.
Live record
0-0
Favorites won-lost
Our pick is the side we gave over 50%
14
Pending
14 logged, 0 void
None yet
Brier score
Lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.250
None yet
Log loss
Lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693
No prediction has been graded yet. The first grades land after the first logged matches finish, starting with ULM at Ark.-Pine Bluff on Oct. 5.
We quote no prices, so there is no units or ROI line: grading is on whether the favorite won and on how good the probability was (Brier score and log loss).
The ledger
Download every prediction (CSV)14 predictions, newest first. Times are Eastern.
| Match date | Match | Our pick | Prob. | Logged | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 6 | Mercer at Samford | Samford | 61.7% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Chattanooga at Tennessee Tech | Tennessee Tech | 77.2% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Bradley at Illinois St. | Illinois St. | 58.8% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Western Caro. at Wofford | Wofford | 86.8% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Robert Morris at Youngstown St. | Youngstown St. | 78.4% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | High Point at Col. of Charleston | Col. of Charleston | 52.2% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Austin Peay at Eastern Ky. | Eastern Ky. | 88.5% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Furman at The Citadel | Furman | 88.3% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Bryant at Holy Cross | Holy Cross | 60.6% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | UNC Greensboro at ETSU | UNC Greensboro | 53.8% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Miami (OH) at Ball St. | Ball St. | 85.7% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | Duquesne at Dayton | Dayton | 82.4% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 6 | VCU at Davidson | Davidson | 64.3% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending | |
| Oct. 5 | ULM at Ark.-Pine Bluff | ULM | 94.7% | Oct. 4, 8:38 p.m. ET | Pending |
Backtest: not part of the record
Before trusting the live record, here is how the same model would have done this season if it had been running. Each match day from Sept. 5 to Oct. 4 was predicted by a model fit only on earlier days, with the calibration also fit only on earlier days. These 1,853 matches never count above.
- Favorite won
- 75.0%
- Brier score
- 0.165
- Log loss
- 0.503
- Home team won
- 56.2%
| Favorite's probability | Matches | Average predicted | Favorite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 411 | 54.9% | 52.8% |
| 60-70% | 397 | 65.0% | 65.7% |
| 70-80% | 353 | 75.1% | 79.9% |
| 80-90% | 330 | 84.6% | 88.5% |
| 90-100% | 362 | 95.1% | 93.4% |
The model's one tuned setting, the strength of the prior, was picked as the best of six values on this same backtest, so these numbers flatter the model slightly. The live record is the real test. Details on the methodology page.
21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.