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Penn St. vs UCLA Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 16

Friday, Oct. 16, 10:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Penn St.

42.8%

UCLA

57.2%

Fair line
Penn St. +134, UCLA -134
Neutral floor
UCLA 51.8%
Ratings
+2.51 (14th) / +2.57 (12th)
Logged
Oct. 15, 12:38 a.m. ET

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Penn St. sweep to a UCLA sweep.

9.8%
15.9%
17.1%
20.0%
21.6%
15.6%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Penn St. winsUCLA wins

The number

Call this one close to a coin flip with a lean. UCLA wins 57.2% of the time in our model and Penn St. wins the other 42.8%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -134 on UCLA and +134 on Penn St. The single most likely result is UCLA 3-1 (21.6%), and Penn St. takes at least one set 84.4% of the time.

Why the model leans UCLA

The whole forecast comes from three inputs:

  • UCLA rating: +2.57, 12th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 97.5% of the time.
  • Penn St. rating: +2.51, 14th of 348. Against that same average team: 97.3%.
  • Home court: 5.4 percentage points for UCLA. On a neutral floor, UCLA would win 51.8% of the time.

Form check

UCLA is 13-4 against D1 opponents with a 41-19 set record (last five: WLWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 12th. Penn St. is 12-4 against D1 opponents with a 39-17 set record (last five: LLWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 9th. They sit at No. 15 in the AVCA poll.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Penn St. wins outright 42.8% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 37.1% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 15, 12:38 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 15 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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