Arizona St. vs Kansas Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18
Sunday, Oct. 18, 12:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com
Arizona St.
38.5%
Kansas
61.5%
- Neutral floor
- Kansas 56.3%
- Ratings
- +2.32 (21st) / +2.53 (12th)
- Logged
- Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET
Miss.Final: Arizona St. 3-2. We had Kansas at 61.5%; the exact set score was a 15.9% outcome. See the full record.
Set-score odds
Each bar is one exact result, from a Arizona St. sweep to a Kansas sweep.
The number
Kansas is the favorite at 61.5%, which leaves Arizona St. a live 38.5%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -160 on Kansas and +160 on Arizona St. The single most likely result is Kansas 3-1 (23.3%), and Arizona St. takes at least one set 82.2% of the time.
Why the model leans Kansas
Three inputs set this number, and here they are:
- Kansas rating: +2.53, 12th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 97.4% of the time.
- Arizona St. rating: +2.32, 21st of 348. Against that same average team: 96.3%.
- Home court: 5.2 percentage points for Kansas. On a neutral floor, Kansas would win 56.3% of the time.
Form check
Kansas is 12-4 against D1 opponents with a 40-14 set record (last five: WWLWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 27th. They sit at No. 17 in the AVCA poll. Arizona St. is 14-3 against D1 opponents with a 45-18 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 25th. They sit at No. 8 in the AVCA poll.
This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.
Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.
How this goes wrong
Arizona St. wins outright 38.5% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 36.4% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.
Odds and the fine print
We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.
Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.
21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.
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