Oregon vs Penn St. Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 23
Friday, Oct. 23, 7:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com
Oregon
48.8%
Penn St.
51.2%
- Neutral floor
- Penn St. 46.0%
- Ratings
- +2.65 (11th) / +2.52 (12th)
- Logged
- Oct. 21, 11:15 a.m. ET
Set-score odds
Each bar is one exact result, from a Oregon sweep to a Penn St. sweep.
The number
Call this one close to a coin flip with a lean. Penn St. wins 51.2% of the time in our model and Oregon wins the other 48.8%. The single most likely result is Penn St. 3-1 (19.2%), and Oregon takes at least one set 87.0% of the time.
Why the model leans Penn St.
The whole forecast comes from three inputs:
- Penn St. rating: +2.52, 12th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 97.4% of the time.
- Oregon rating: +2.65, 11th of 348. Against that same average team: 97.9%.
- Home court: 5.1 percentage points for Penn St. On a neutral floor, Penn St. would win 46.0% of the time.
Form check
Penn St. is 13-5 against D1 opponents with a 44-20 set record (last five: WWWLW). Their strength of schedule ranks 11th. They sit at No. 16 in the AVCA poll. Oregon is 16-2 against D1 opponents with a 50-19 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 20th. They sit at No. 10 in the AVCA poll.
This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.
Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.
How this goes wrong
Oregon wins outright 48.8% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 37.5% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.
Odds and the fine print
We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.
Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 21, 11:15 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 21 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.
21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.
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