Washington vs Wisconsin Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 23

The number

Our number: Wisconsin 74.0%, Washington 26.0%. A real favorite, not a formality. The single most likely result is Wisconsin 3-1 (28.0%), and Washington takes at least one set 74.5% of the time.

Why the model leans Wisconsin

Three inputs set this number, and here they are:

• Wisconsin rating: +2.78, 8th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 98.3% of the time.
• Washington rating: +2.11, 25th of 348. Against that same average team: 94.9%.
• Home court: 4.5 percentage points for Wisconsin. On a neutral floor, Wisconsin would win 69.5% of the time.

Form check

Wisconsin is 13-5 against D1 opponents with a 41-26 set record (last five: WWLWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 1st. They sit at No. 6 in the AVCA poll. Washington is 14-3 against D1 opponents with a 42-18 set record (last five: WWLWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 27th. They sit at No. 21 in the AVCA poll.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Washington wins outright 26.0% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 32.3% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.