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Baylor vs TCU Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18

Sunday, Oct. 18, 3:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Baylor

41.8%

TCU

58.2%

Neutral floor
TCU 52.9%
Ratings
+2.29 (22nd) / +2.38 (16th)
Logged
Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET

Miss.Final: Baylor 3-0. We had TCU at 58.2%; the exact set score was a 9.5% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Baylor sweep to a TCU sweep.

9.5%
15.5%
16.9%
20.1%
22.0%
16.1%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Baylor winsTCU wins

The number

Call this one close to a coin flip with a lean. TCU wins 58.2% of the time in our model and Baylor wins the other 41.8%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -139 on TCU and +139 on Baylor. The single most likely result is TCU 3-1 (22.0%), and Baylor takes at least one set 83.9% of the time.

Why the model leans TCU

Three inputs set this number, and here they are:

  • TCU rating: +2.38, 16th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 96.7% of the time.
  • Baylor rating: +2.29, 22nd of 348. Against that same average team: 96.1%.
  • Home court: 5.2 percentage points for TCU. On a neutral floor, TCU would win 52.9% of the time.

Form check

TCU is 14-3 against D1 opponents with a 42-18 set record (last five: WWWWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 17th. They sit at No. 10 in the AVCA poll. Baylor is 11-5 against D1 opponents with a 37-20 set record (last five: LWLWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 14th.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Baylor wins outright 41.8% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 36.9% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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