Colorado vs BYU Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 22

The number

Heavy chalk: BYU at 86.9%, Colorado at 13.1%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -663 on BYU and +663 on Colorado. The single most likely result is BYU 3-0 (38.2%), and Colorado takes at least one set 61.8% of the time.

Why the model leans BYU

Three inputs set this number, and here they are:

• BYU rating: +3.03, 7th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 98.9% of the time.
• Colorado rating: +1.75, 34th of 348. Against that same average team: 91.3%.
• Home court: 3.1 percentage points for BYU. On a neutral floor, BYU would win 83.8% of the time.

Form check

BYU is 15-1 against D1 opponents with a 46-11 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 37th. They sit at No. 11 in the AVCA poll. Colorado is 13-4 against D1 opponents with a 41-23 set record (last five: LWLWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 41st. They sit at No. 25 in the AVCA poll.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Colorado wins outright 13.1% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 23.8% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.