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D1 Picks

Florida vs Texas Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18

Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:30 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Florida

73.8%

Texas

26.2%

Neutral floor
Florida 78.1%
Ratings
+3.33 (4th) / +2.32 (19th)
Logged
Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET

Hit.Final: Florida 3-2. We had Florida at 73.8%; the exact set score was a 20.5% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Florida sweep to a Texas sweep.

25.4%
27.9%
20.5%
11.9%
9.4%
4.9%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Florida winsTexas wins

The number

Florida is the favorite at 73.8%, which leaves Texas a live 26.2%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -282 on Florida and +282 on Texas. The single most likely result is Florida 3-1 (27.9%), and Texas takes at least one set 74.6% of the time.

Why the model leans Florida

The whole forecast comes from three inputs:

  • Florida rating: +3.33, 4th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 99.4% of the time.
  • Texas rating: +2.32, 19th of 348. Against that same average team: 96.3%.
  • Home court: 4.2 percentage points for Texas, which is why this is not higher. On a neutral floor, Florida would win 78.1% of the time.

Form check

Florida is 13-2 against D1 opponents with a 42-11 set record (last five: WWWWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 11th. They sit at No. 7 in the AVCA poll. Texas is 8-6 against D1 opponents with a 27-25 set record (last five: LWWWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 2nd. They sit at No. 12 in the AVCA poll.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Texas wins outright 26.2% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 32.4% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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