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D1 Picks

Michigan vs Illinois Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Michigan

30.3%

Illinois

69.7%

Neutral floor
Illinois 64.8%
Ratings
+1.71 (35th) / +2.21 (23rd)
Logged
Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET

Miss.Final: Michigan 3-2. We had Illinois at 69.7%; the exact set score was a 13.4% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Michigan sweep to a Illinois sweep.

6.0%
11.0%
13.4%
20.7%
26.4%
22.5%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Michigan winsIllinois wins

The number

Our number: Illinois 69.7%, Michigan 30.3%. A real favorite, not a formality. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -230 on Illinois and +230 on Michigan. The single most likely result is Illinois 3-1 (26.4%), and Michigan takes at least one set 77.5% of the time.

Why the model leans Illinois

The whole forecast comes from three inputs:

  • Illinois rating: +2.21, 23rd of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 95.6% of the time.
  • Michigan rating: +1.71, 35th of 348. Against that same average team: 90.6%.
  • Home court: 4.9 percentage points for Illinois. On a neutral floor, Illinois would win 64.8% of the time.

Form check

Illinois is 12-6 against D1 opponents with a 41-23 set record (last five: WLLLW). Their strength of schedule ranks 21st. Michigan is 11-6 against D1 opponents with a 38-23 set record (last five: LWLWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 34th.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Michigan wins outright 30.3% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 34.1% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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