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Mississippi St. vs Vanderbilt Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Mississippi St.

12.1%

Vanderbilt

87.9%

Neutral floor
Vanderbilt 84.9%
Ratings
+1.56 (39th) / +2.90 (8th)
Logged
Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET

Hit.Final: Vanderbilt 3-1. We had Vanderbilt at 87.9%; the exact set score was a 31.6% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Mississippi St. sweep to a Vanderbilt sweep.

1.9%
4.1%
6.1%
16.8%
31.6%
39.6%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Mississippi St. winsVanderbilt wins

The number

The model is not sweating this one. Vanderbilt wins 87.9% of the time and Mississippi St. gets 12.1%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -729 on Vanderbilt and +729 on Mississippi St. The single most likely result is Vanderbilt 3-0 (39.6%), and Mississippi St. takes at least one set 60.4% of the time.

Why the model leans Vanderbilt

The whole forecast comes from three inputs:

  • Vanderbilt rating: +2.90, 8th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 98.6% of the time.
  • Mississippi St. rating: +1.56, 39th of 348. Against that same average team: 88.5%.
  • Home court: 3.0 percentage points for Vanderbilt. On a neutral floor, Vanderbilt would win 84.9% of the time.

Form check

Vanderbilt is 13-2 against D1 opponents with a 41-10 set record (last five: LWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 29th. They sit at No. 24 in the AVCA poll. Mississippi St. is 13-4 against D1 opponents with a 40-17 set record (last five: LLWWL). Their strength of schedule ranks 102nd.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Mississippi St. wins outright 12.1% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 22.8% of the time. It is a ratings model, not a scout. It sees set results, opponents and home court, and nothing about injuries, rotations or travel. If you know something it doesn't, adjust from here.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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