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D1 Picks

North Carolina vs Louisville Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 18

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

North Carolina

15.5%

Louisville

84.5%

Neutral floor
Louisville 81.0%
Ratings
+2.06 (26th) / +3.20 (5th)
Logged
Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET

Hit.Final: Louisville 3-0. We had Louisville at 84.5%; the exact set score was a 35.3% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a North Carolina sweep to a Louisville sweep.

2.5%
5.4%
7.6%
18.2%
31.1%
35.3%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
North Carolina winsLouisville wins

The number

The model is not sweating this one. Louisville wins 84.5% of the time and North Carolina gets 15.5%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -547 on Louisville and +547 on North Carolina. The single most likely result is Louisville 3-0 (35.3%), and North Carolina takes at least one set 64.7% of the time.

Why the model leans Louisville

Three inputs set this number, and here they are:

  • Louisville rating: +3.20, 5th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 99.2% of the time.
  • North Carolina rating: +2.06, 26th of 348. Against that same average team: 94.4%.
  • Home court: 3.5 percentage points for Louisville. On a neutral floor, Louisville would win 81.0% of the time.

Form check

Louisville is 16-2 against D1 opponents with a 49-11 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 15th. They sit at No. 3 in the AVCA poll. North Carolina is 11-3 against D1 opponents with a 35-18 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 32nd. They sit at No. 23 in the AVCA poll.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

North Carolina wins outright 15.5% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 25.8% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 16, 10:51 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 16 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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