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Penn St. vs Southern California Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 17

Saturday, Oct. 17, 7:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

Penn St.

69.9%

Southern California

30.1%

Neutral floor
Penn St. 74.6%
Ratings
+2.51 (14th) / +1.64 (36th)
Logged
Oct. 15, 12:38 a.m. ET

Hit.Final: Penn St. 3-0. We had Penn St. at 69.9%; the exact set score was a 22.6% outcome. See the full record.

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a Penn St. sweep to a Southern California sweep.

22.6%
26.5%
20.7%
13.3%
10.9%
5.9%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
Penn St. winsSouthern California wins

The number

Penn St. is the favorite at 69.9%, which leaves Southern California a live 30.1%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -232 on Penn St. and +232 on Southern California. The single most likely result is Penn St. 3-1 (26.5%), and Southern California takes at least one set 77.4% of the time.

Why the model leans Penn St.

Three inputs set this number, and here they are:

  • Penn St. rating: +2.51, 14th of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 97.3% of the time.
  • Southern California rating: +1.64, 36th of 348. Against that same average team: 89.7%.
  • Home court: 4.7 percentage points for Southern California, which is why this is not higher. On a neutral floor, Penn St. would win 74.6% of the time.

Form check

Penn St. is 12-4 against D1 opponents with a 39-17 set record (last five: LLWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 9th. They sit at No. 15 in the AVCA poll. Southern California is 8-8 against D1 opponents with a 29-26 set record (last five: LLLLW). Their strength of schedule ranks 10th.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

Southern California wins outright 30.1% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 34.0% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 15, 12:38 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 15 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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