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UCLA vs Nebraska Volleyball Prediction, Oct. 22

Thursday, Oct. 22, 7:00 p.m. ET. Match page on NCAA.com

UCLA

7.5%

Nebraska

92.5%

Neutral floor
Nebraska 90.4%
Ratings
+2.45 (13th) / +4.13 (1st)
Logged
Oct. 20, 11:06 a.m. ET

Set-score odds

Each bar is one exact result, from a UCLA sweep to a Nebraska sweep.

1.1%
2.5%
3.9%
13.8%
31.3%
47.3%
3-03-13-23-23-13-0
UCLA winsNebraska wins

The number

The model is not sweating this one. Nebraska wins 92.5% of the time and UCLA gets 7.5%. Turned into a price with no vig, that is -1232 on Nebraska and +1232 on UCLA. The single most likely result is Nebraska 3-0 (47.3%), and UCLA takes at least one set 52.7% of the time.

Why the model leans Nebraska

The whole forecast comes from three inputs:

  • Nebraska rating: +4.13, 1st of 348 D1 teams. That beats an average D1 team on a neutral floor 99.9% of the time.
  • UCLA rating: +2.45, 13th of 348. Against that same average team: 97.1%.
  • Home court: 2.1 percentage points for Nebraska. On a neutral floor, Nebraska would win 90.4% of the time.

Form check

Nebraska is 19-0 against D1 opponents with a 57-4 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 17th. They sit at No. 1 in the AVCA poll. UCLA is 15-4 against D1 opponents with a 47-23 set record (last five: WWWWW). Their strength of schedule ranks 16th.

This is their first meeting of the season, so there is no head-to-head in the sample. The model does not need one: every D1 result connects the two teams through common opponents.

Every result above comes from the NCAA.com scoreboard, linked in the tables on this page.

How this goes wrong

UCLA wins outright 7.5% of the time, and the match goes the full five sets 17.8% of the time. The model only knows this season's set results, who they came against and where. It knows nothing about injuries, lineup changes, travel or a setter having an off night, so treat the number as the baseline the news has to move.

Odds and the fine print

We do not quote sportsbook or prediction-market prices yet, so this page makes no bet call. The fair lines are the model's probability converted to American odds with no vig. This prediction was logged before first serve and gets graded on the results page, win or lose. 21+ only. Outcomes are uncertain, and nothing here is betting advice.

Written automatically by the D1 Picks model from the numbers on this page, logged Oct. 20, 11:06 a.m. ET using ratings as of Oct. 20 (model vb-bt-1). The model and this page template are maintained by the D1 Picks Editorial Team. How we publish without a human edit: editorial policy.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

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