Skip to content
D1 Picks

Volleyball matchup calculator

Pick any two of the 348 D1 women's volleyball teams and a floor. You get the win chance and the odds of every set score from the same rating model that drives our daily predictions.

By D1 Picks Editorial Team. Built automatically from our saved model output and NCAA.com results; ratings updated Oct. 21, 11:15 a.m. ET.

Where is it played?

Nebraska

53.8%

Pittsburgh

46.2%

Chance of each set score
Final set scoreNebraska winsPittsburgh wins
3-014.1%11.0%
3-120.3%17.2%
3-219.4%17.9%

Ratings: Nebraska 4.13 (rank 1), Pittsburgh 4.00 (rank 2). Home court adds 0.17 to the host's per-set log-odds. This is a what-if, not a logged prediction.

21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.

The top 10, head to head

Chance that the team in the row beats the team in the column in a best-of-five match on a neutral floor, from the same ratings.

Neutral-floor win chances among the ten highest-rated teams
TeamNebraskaPittsburghKentuckyLouisvilleFloridaTennesseeBYUWisconsinSMUVanderbilt
Nebraska54%68%73%74%80%80%85%86%87%
Pittsburgh46%65%70%70%77%77%83%84%85%
Kentucky32%35%56%56%64%64%71%72%74%
Louisville27%30%44%50%58%59%66%67%69%
Florida26%30%44%50%58%58%66%67%69%
Tennessee20%23%36%42%42%50%58%59%61%
BYU20%23%36%41%42%50%58%59%61%
Wisconsin15%17%29%34%34%42%42%51%53%
SMU14%16%28%33%33%41%41%49%52%
Vanderbilt13%15%26%31%31%39%39%47%48%

What the calculator assumes

  • Ratings are the saved vb-bt-1 ratings from 2026-10-21, fit to 3,295 completed D1 matches. A team with few matches has a less certain rating.
  • Home court adds 0.17 to the host's log-odds of winning a set. A neutral floor adds nothing. The match chance is then shrunk by the calibration scale 0.65, fit on out-of-sample predictions (methodology).
  • Sets are treated as independent. The set-score chances always add up to the match chance.

Frequently asked questions

How does the volleyball matchup calculator work?

It takes the two teams' saved ratings, adds the home-court term if one side hosts, turns the rating gap into a chance of winning each set, and builds the match and set-score chances from that. It is the same math as our daily predictions.

Is a calculator result a prediction you grade?

No. Only matches on the predictions board are logged before first serve and graded on the results page. A calculator result is a what-if from today's ratings and is not logged.

Does it know about injuries or lineups?

No. The model sees results, opponents and home court only, so a lineup change or an injury is invisible to it.

More from our data

  • Volleyball ratings

    Model ratings for every D1 women's volleyball team, updated daily from this season's results, with strength of schedule and the AVCA poll.

  • Volleyball RPI

    Projected RPI for every D1 women's volleyball team, rebuilt from NCAA.com results with the 25/50/25 formula, next to our model rank. CSV download.

  • NCAA bracket

    Our projected 2026 NCAA volleyball bracket: 64 teams, each one's odds to make the field and reach every round, the bubble, bids by league, a simulator and CSV.

  • Conference standings

    Standings for all 32 D1 women's volleyball conferences with model ratings, conference title odds and projected NCAA bids, plus a CSV download.

  • Results

    Every D1 Picks prediction, logged before first serve and graded after the match, with the running record, Brier score and calibration.