NCAA volleyball bracket 2026: projected 64-team field and simulator
Our projected 64-team field for the 2026 NCAA tournament: 31 automatic bids and 33 at large, simulated 4,000 times from our ratings. The last at-large team in has a 27% chance of getting in. On that field, Nebraska wins the title 39.0% of the time. The real bracket is announced Nov. 29.
By D1 Picks Editorial Team. Built automatically from our saved model output and NCAA.com results. , ratings through Oct. 20.
The projected 64
Seeds follow our model rating. “Auto” marks the likeliest champion of a league with an automatic bid. “Field” is how often the team is in the field across all simulations; “Final Four” and “Title” come from 20,000 plays of the bracket built from this field.
| Seed | Team | Conference | Bid | Field | Win league | Final Four | Title | Model rank | RPI rank | AVCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nebraska | Big Ten | Auto | 100% | 70% | 78.8% | 39.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | ACC | Auto | 100% | 67% | 71.7% | 29.3% | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Kentucky | SEC | Auto | 100% | 40% | 53.3% | 10.7% | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Louisville | ACC | At large | 100% | 23% | 41.4% | 6.3% | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 5 | Florida | SEC | At large | 100% | 28% | 39.3% | 5.8% | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Tennessee | SEC | At large | 100% | 18% | 24.8% | 2.6% | 6 | 18 | 9 |
| 7 | BYU | Big 12 | Auto | 100% | 41% | 15.9% | 2.3% | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 8% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | SMU | ACC | At large | 100% | 6% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Vanderbilt | SEC | At large | 100% | 8% | 6.2% | 0.5% | 10 | 9 | 24 |
| 11 | Oregon | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 6% | 10.0% | 0.4% | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Penn St. | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 4% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| 13 | UCLA | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 3% | 5.9% | 0.2% | 13 | 11 | |
| 14 | Texas | SEC | At large | 100% | 4% | 5.2% | 0.2% | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 15 | Baylor | Big 12 | At large | 100% | 13% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 15 | 17 | 24 |
| 16 | Kansas | Big 12 | At large | 100% | 14% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 16 | 25 | 17 |
| 17 | Purdue | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 17 | 20 | 12 |
| 18 | Arizona St. | Big 12 | At large | 100% | 12% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 18 | 12 | 8 |
| 19 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | At large | 100% | 2% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 19 | 24 | |
| 20 | TCU | Big 12 | At large | 100% | 9% | 2.2% | <0.1% | 20 | 16 | 13 |
| 21 | Minnesota | Big Ten | At large | 99% | 2% | 2.0% | <0.1% | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| 22 | Indiana | Big Ten | At large | 99% | 1% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 22 | 19 | 18 |
| 23 | Utah | Big 12 | At large | 99% | 8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 23 | 29 | |
| 24 | Illinois | Big Ten | At large | 98% | <1% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 24 | 32 | |
| 25 | Washington | Big Ten | At large | 97% | <1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 25 | 13 | 21 |
| 26 | Georgia Tech | ACC | At large | 97% | 1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 26 | 38 | |
| 27 | Texas A&M | SEC | At large | 96% | 2% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 27 | 37 | 19 |
| 28 | North Carolina | ACC | At large | 94% | 1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 28 | 23 | 23 |
| 29 | Stanford | ACC | At large | 92% | 1% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 29 | 31 | 15 |
| 30 | Marquette | Big East | Auto | 94% | 50% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 30 | 48 | |
| 31 | Colorado St. | Pac-12 | At large | 88% | 57% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 31 | 33 | |
| 32 | Georgia | SEC | At large | 78% | <1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 32 | 27 | |
| 33 | Hawaii | Mountain West | Auto | 87% | 58% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 33 | 34 | |
| 34 | Colorado | Big 12 | At large | 73% | 3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 34 | 28 | 25 |
| 35 | Michigan | Big Ten | At large | 74% | <1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 35 | 43 | |
| 36 | Oklahoma | SEC | At large | 63% | <1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 36 | 30 | |
| 37 | Missouri | SEC | At large | 59% | <1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 37 | 40 | |
| 38 | Mississippi St. | SEC | At large | 53% | <1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 38 | 63 | |
| 39 | Western Ky. | CUSA | Auto | 73% | 56% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 39 | 22 | |
| 40 | Pepperdine | WCC | Auto | 54% | 35% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 40 | 36 | |
| 41 | UNI | MVC | Auto | 73% | 67% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 43 | 69 | |
| 42 | Maryland | Big Ten | At large | 27% | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 44 | 76 | |
| 43 | Cal Poly | Big West | Auto | 48% | 39% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 49 | 104 | |
| 44 | Dayton | Atlantic 10 | Auto | 61% | 57% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 52 | 41 | |
| 45 | Eastern Ky. | UAC | Auto | 70% | 68% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 56 | 47 | |
| 46 | Tulsa | American | Auto | 31% | 27% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 57 | 82 | |
| 47 | Col. of Charleston | CAA | Auto | 55% | 53% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 60 | 57 | |
| 48 | Ball St. | MAC | Auto | 31% | 28% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61 | 58 | |
| 49 | Ga. Southern | Sun Belt | Auto | 36% | 34% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 62 | 95 | |
| 50 | Lindenwood | OVC | Auto | 65% | 64% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 64 | 62 | |
| 51 | South Dakota | Summit League | Auto | 44% | 42% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 68 | 60 | |
| 52 | Yale | Ivy League | Auto | 59% | 58% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71 | 44 | |
| 53 | West Florida | ASUN | Auto | 42% | 40% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73 | 100 | |
| 54 | Utah Tech | Big Sky | Auto | 47% | 46% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 74 | 70 | |
| 55 | High Point | Big South | Auto | 66% | 66% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 75 | 42 | |
| 56 | Wright St. | Horizon | Auto | 40% | 40% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 78 | 54 | |
| 57 | American | Patriot | Auto | 46% | 46% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 94 | 59 | |
| 58 | Wofford | SoCon | Auto | 43% | 43% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 115 | 132 | |
| 59 | UMBC | America East | Auto | 64% | 64% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 128 | 129 | |
| 60 | UTRGV | Southland | Auto | 35% | 35% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 144 | 159 | |
| 61 | LIU | NEC | Auto | 88% | 88% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 146 | 222 | |
| 62 | Fairfield | MAAC | Auto | 52% | 52% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 214 | 143 | |
| 63 | Coppin St. | MEAC | Auto | 62% | 62% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 215 | 236 | |
| 64 | Alabama A&M | SWAC | Auto | 43% | 43% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 270 | 265 |
Likeliest Final Four teams: Nebraska (79%), Pittsburgh (72%), Kentucky (53%), Louisville (41%), Florida (39%). Every team's odds are also in the CSV, and each row here has its own link, for example Nebraska.
Bracket simulator
The default below is our projected field, played 20,000 times. Swap teams, toggle home court and rerun it; every team's chance to reach each round is in the table.
Projected field. 20,000 simulated tournaments, fixed seed 20261016, so a reload gives the same numbers.
| Seed | Team | Round 2 | Regionals | Regional final | Final Four | Title match | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NebraskaBig Ten | 100% | 97.7% | 90.1% | 78.8% | 60.5% | 39.0% |
| 2 | PittsburghACC | 99.9% | 96.8% | 87.5% | 71.7% | 51.7% | 29.3% |
| 3 | KentuckySEC | 99.8% | 92.2% | 75.8% | 53.3% | 24.4% | 10.7% |
| 4 | LouisvilleACC | 99.3% | 89.3% | 70.1% | 41.4% | 15.1% | 6.3% |
| 5 | FloridaSEC | 99.2% | 88.6% | 67.6% | 39.3% | 13.7% | 5.8% |
| 6 | TennesseeSEC | 98.4% | 83.7% | 55.3% | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% |
| 7 | BYUBig 12 | 97.9% | 82.2% | 54.8% | 15.9% | 7.3% | 2.3% |
| 8 | WisconsinBig Ten | 95.3% | 74.3% | 42.0% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| 9 | SMUACC | 93.5% | 72.5% | 40.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 10 | VanderbiltSEC | 91.5% | 66.8% | 29.6% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 11 | OregonBig Ten | 91.5% | 66.1% | 29.5% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| 12 | Penn St.Big Ten | 90.2% | 62.1% | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 14 | TexasSEC | 88.1% | 55.9% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 13 | UCLABig Ten | 88.3% | 58.2% | 17.2% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 15 | BaylorBig 12 | 86.7% | 53.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 16 | KansasBig 12 | 86.3% | 53.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 18 | Arizona St.Big 12 | 67.8% | 32.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 17 | PurdueBig Ten | 68.0% | 33.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 22 | IndianaBig Ten | 68.0% | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 23 | UtahBig 12 | 68.5% | 24.6% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 24 | IllinoisBig Ten | 68.9% | 21.0% | 8.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 19 | Michigan St.Big Ten | 66.2% | 30.9% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| 20 | TCUBig 12 | 67.8% | 30.1% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 21 | MinnesotaBig Ten | 67.1% | 27.1% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 26 | Georgia TechACC | 69.3% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 25 | WashingtonBig Ten | 70.3% | 20.4% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 29 | StanfordACC | 71.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 27 | Texas A&MSEC | 70.5% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 28 | North CarolinaACC | 70.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 30 | MarquetteBig East | 71.9% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 32 | GeorgiaSEC | 69.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | MichiganBig Ten | 33.8% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 56 | Wright St.Horizon | 6.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 31 | Colorado St.Pac-12 | 71.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 33 | HawaiiMountain West | 32.0% | 10.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | ColoradoBig 12 | 32.2% | 10.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 36 | OklahomaSEC | 32.2% | 9.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 37 | MissouriSEC | 32.9% | 8.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 38 | Mississippi St.SEC | 32.0% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 39 | Western Ky.CUSA | 31.5% | 6.7% | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 40 | PepperdineWCC | 31.1% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 41 | UNIMVC | 29.7% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 42 | MarylandBig Ten | 30.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 43 | Cal PolyBig West | 29.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 44 | DaytonAtlantic 10 | 29.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 45 | Eastern Ky.UAC | 28.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 46 | TulsaAmerican | 28.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 47 | Col. of CharlestonCAA | 28.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 48 | Ball St.MAC | 30.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 49 | Ga. SouthernSun Belt | 13.7% | 2.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 50 | LindenwoodOVC | 13.3% | 2.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 51 | South DakotaSummit League | 11.9% | 2.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 52 | YaleIvy League | 11.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 53 | West FloridaASUN | 9.8% | 2.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 54 | Utah TechBig Sky | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 55 | High PointBig South | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 57 | AmericanPatriot | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 58 | WoffordSoCon | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 59 | UMBCAmerica East | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 60 | UTRGVSouthland | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 61 | LIUNEC | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 62 | FairfieldMAAC | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 63 | Coppin St.MEAC | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 64 | Alabama A&MSWAC | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The 16 pods this field makes
- Pod 1 (hosted by Nebraska): Nebraska v Alabama A&M; Georgia v Ball St.
- Pod 2 (hosted by Pittsburgh): Pittsburgh v Coppin St.; Colorado St. v Col. of Charleston
- Pod 3 (hosted by Kentucky): Kentucky v Fairfield; Marquette v Tulsa
- Pod 4 (hosted by Louisville): Louisville v LIU; Stanford v Eastern Ky.
- Pod 5 (hosted by Florida): Florida v UTRGV; North Carolina v Dayton
- Pod 6 (hosted by Tennessee): Tennessee v UMBC; Texas A&M v Cal Poly
- Pod 7 (hosted by BYU): BYU v Wofford; Georgia Tech v Maryland
- Pod 8 (hosted by Wisconsin): Wisconsin v American; Washington v UNI
- Pod 9 (hosted by SMU): SMU v Wright St.; Illinois v Pepperdine
- Pod 10 (hosted by Vanderbilt): Vanderbilt v High Point; Utah v Western Ky.
- Pod 11 (hosted by Oregon): Oregon v Utah Tech; Indiana v Mississippi St.
- Pod 12 (hosted by Penn St.): Penn St. v West Florida; Minnesota v Missouri
- Pod 13 (hosted by UCLA): UCLA v Yale; TCU v Oklahoma
- Pod 14 (hosted by Texas): Texas v South Dakota; Michigan St. v Michigan
- Pod 15 (hosted by Baylor): Baylor v Lindenwood; Arizona St. v Colorado
- Pod 16 (hosted by Kansas): Kansas v Ga. Southern; Purdue v Hawaii
21+ only. These are probabilities, not promises, and D1 Picks takes no bets. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or read our responsible gambling page.
The bubble
Lowest-odds at-large teams in our field, and the teams just outside it. Odds this far from selection are wide: ratings move with every match and conference tournaments are not played yet.
| Team | Conference | Field | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | Big Ten | 27% | 12-7 |
| Mississippi St. | SEC | 53% | 13-5 |
| Missouri | SEC | 59% | 11-8 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 63% | 10-6 |
| Colorado | Big 12 | 73% | 13-4 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 74% | 12-7 |
| Georgia | SEC | 78% | 14-3 |
| Colorado St. | Pac-12 | 88% | 14-3 |
| Team | Conference | Field | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Beach St. | Big West | 44% | 14-4 |
| Lehigh | Patriot | 40% | 13-3 |
| Creighton | Big East | 38% | 11-9 |
| San Diego | WCC | 35% | 9-8 |
| LMU (CA) | WCC | 34% | 15-3 |
| Northern Ky. | Horizon | 34% | 13-7 |
| Southeast Mo. St. | OVC | 31% | 14-7 |
| Lipscomb | ASUN | 30% | 12-5 |
Bids by conference
| Conference | Automatic | At large | In field | Expected bids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten | 1 | 12 | 13 | 11.9 |
| SEC | 1 | 9 | 10 | 8.8 |
| Big 12 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7.1 |
| ACC | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6.2 |
| Big East | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 |
| WCC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Mountain West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 |
| CUSA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Big West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| American | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Pac-12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 |
| MAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| MVC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Sun Belt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| ASUN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| CAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| UAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Summit League | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| OVC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Big Sky | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Ivy League | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Horizon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Big South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Patriot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| America East | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| MAAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| MEAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| SoCon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Southland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| NEC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| SWAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
“Expected bids” is the average number of the league's teams in the field across all 4,000 simulations. Every league's odds are on the conference standings page.
Methods and assumptions
- Format and dates, from NCAA.com (checked 2026-10-14): 64 teams, 31 automatic and 33 at large; selection show Nov. 29; first and second rounds Dec. 3 to 5; regionals Dec. 10 to 13; semifinals and title match Dec. 17 and 20 in San Antonio.
- Automatic bids, unverified: our feed lists 32 leagues and NCAA.com says 31 teams get automatic bids without naming them (NCAA.com, re-checked 2026-10-20). We assume Pac-12 has none this year. A third-party list agrees (FloVolleyball, Oct. 8), but this is our assumption, not an NCAA statement, and it moves several teams' odds if wrong.
- Field model: every rating is nudged in each of 4,000 simulations by an estimated uncertainty (about one over the square root of 0.25 plus 0.76 per match played; that estimate is ours, not a pipeline output). Each league's champion is simulated as an eight-team single-elimination bracket on neutral floors, seeded by rating, so leagues that award the bid for the regular season or use another format will differ. We do not know the remaining schedules. Fixed seed 20261015.
- At-large spots go to the best-rated teams left with a winning D1 record. The committee uses the RPI and other criteria; see the RPI page for where the two differ.
- Bracket model: 20,000 plays of the 64-team bracket with fixed seed 20261016, so a reload reproduces the numbers. The top 32 teams are seeded nationally in pods of four, with ones paired against eights and so on (NCAA.com, 2025 field announcement). The committee also places teams geographically and avoids early same-conference pairings; we do neither. Our pod layout and the regional and Final Four pairings are assumptions about the NCAA bracket.
- Matches are won with the saved calibrated probability: home court for the pod host in rounds one and two if the box is ticked, neutral after. Rating uncertainty is not added in the bracket, so favorites can look surer than they are. The model was backtested on regular-season matches, not tournament matches, and cannot see injuries. Full math on the methodology page.
- Data: ratings through Oct. 20 from saved NCAA.com results. Results refresh after ratings are fit, so a record can be a match ahead of the ratings page.
Frequently asked questions
How many teams make the NCAA volleyball tournament?
64 teams: 31 conference champions with automatic bids and 33 at-large teams chosen by the Division I committee (NCAA.com). The 2026 bracket is announced on Nov. 29.
When is the 2026 NCAA volleyball selection show?
Nov. 29, per NCAA.com. The first and second rounds follow on Dec. 3 to 5, with the semifinals and title match on Dec. 17 and 20 in San Antonio.
How is this NCAA volleyball bracket projection made?
We nudge every team's rating by its estimated uncertainty, simulate each conference tournament to pick the automatic qualifiers, then give the 33 at-large spots to the best-rated teams left. We repeat that 4,000 times (fixed seed 20261015) and count how often each team gets in. The bracket itself is then played 20,000 times (seed 20261016).
Is this the real NCAA bracket?
No. The committee announces the real bracket on Nov. 29, seeds with criteria we cannot see and places teams geographically. This is a model of the format run on our ratings, and the odds are wide this far out.
Does the committee use the same ranking as this page?
No. The committee weighs the RPI and other results-based factors. We rank at-large teams by our model rating; the RPI page shows where the two disagree.
Can I run my own NCAA volleyball bracket simulation?
Yes. Use the simulator on this page: swap any team in or out of the field, toggle home court for the pod hosts in the first two rounds, choose the number of simulations and rerun it. The same seed gives the same numbers on every reload.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The CSV has every team's chance to win its league, get an automatic or at-large bid and make the field, plus its odds in the default bracket. It is the same data as the tables here.
More from our data
- Volleyball ratings
Model ratings for every D1 women's volleyball team, updated daily from this season's results, with strength of schedule and the AVCA poll.
- Volleyball RPI
Projected RPI for every D1 women's volleyball team, rebuilt from NCAA.com results with the 25/50/25 formula, next to our model rank. CSV download.
- Conference standings
Standings for all 32 D1 women's volleyball conferences with model ratings, conference title odds and projected NCAA bids, plus a CSV download.
- Matchup calculator
Pick any two D1 women's volleyball teams and a floor to see the win chance and set-score odds from our rating model. Runs on the saved ratings.
- Results
Every D1 Picks prediction, logged before first serve and graded after the match, with the running record, Brier score and calibration.